AEMO released their Electricity Forecasting Insights which estimates electricity demand out to 2036. The forecast replaces the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) and shows that the underlying demand for electricity continues to grow. This growth is offset by rooftop solar PV systems and other non-scheduled generation which is considered a reduction in operation demand by AEMO.
Strong, neutral and weak growth scenarios were also analysed to show a range of possible outcomes. All three scenarios end up lower than the 2016 NEFR assumption.
These scenarios will form the basis for most of the analysis conducted by AEMO and feeds into a diverse set of requirements such as emergency planning, regulatory investment tests and national transmission planning reports.
The report also indicates that the difference between minimum and maximum demand will grow. The uptake of renewable generation in South Australia will mean that the minimum operational demand will be negative for the state at times with non-scheduled generation forecast to be 421 MW higher than demand in 2036-37.
The full report and data can be found on AEMO’s website: http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/Electricity-Forecasting-Insights
AEMO is expecting a large uptake of customer interaction with the market. If you would like to understand how to position your business to optimise future opportunities, please contact us on 07 3232 1115.