The Importance of Eraring and Ongoing Negotiations

Aerial view of a coal-fired power station with tall chimneys emitting smoke, surrounded by forest and a body of water in the distance.

Eraring, which is forecasted to close in August 2025, has highlighted its necessity to stay online by playing a vital role in the NSW grid. This was demonstrated on February 29 during high temperatures, where demand exceeded 13GW, reaching the highest level since February 2020. During this period of high demand, electricity prices soared towards the market cap of $16,600 and remained volatile for over an hour, adding approximately $13/MWh to the quarterly average to date. Eraring was supplying up to 16.5% (or 2.2GW) of the state’s power during this period.

Without this generation, the state likely would have enacted RERT or possibly load shedding to ensure grid stability, further adding pressure to keep the unit online until there is ample renewable generation and storage to cover the capacity leaving the grid.

Origin stated that Eraring operated as normal on February 29, which “performed well to meet customer needs and support the market”. However, there is a lot of uncertainty and nervousness around the retirement of coal power plants in the NEM, which need to be replaced by clean energy, and the new transmission lines required to connect them to the grid. These are faced challenges such as planned delays, community opposition, and rising costs.

Negotiations between Origin Energy and the state government about keeping it on have been dragging on for about six months now. Origin is seeking a safety net to avoid losses associated with keeping the unit online. However, NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said on Wednesday that the negotiations about keeping Eraring open were “not an opportunity for Origin to make a windfall gain at the public’s expense”.

The two main issues that will affect the cost of Eraring operating post its original closure are onsite ash dam storage issues and no current coal contracts past its closure. Eraring’s ash dam storage is currently at capacity, and as a result, will need to ship ash waste offsite in the future. Additionally, Eraring has no long-term coal contracts post its closure, as a result, Eraring will have to enter into a coal contract at a higher price as coal has significantly increased in recent years. Depending on whether the government subsidizes this cost, Eraring’s running cost could increase significantly, therefore lifting the market significantly due to Eraring’s size and role in the NSW grid.

Progress of Snowy 2.0

Active construction site of Snowy 2.0 hydroelectric project with cranes and temporary buildings on a rugged landscape.

Since the beginning of construction, Snowy 2.0, a pumped storage power station, has faced a variety of challenges and issues, including the tunnel boring machine getting stuck late 2022 and the project being well over budget, more than double the previous estimate, and six times the ballpark figure given by Malcolm Turnbull.

Despite these setbacks, rock conditions are currently good, and in a year’s time, the project is forecasted to have created an underground cavern that should be big enough to accommodate a 22-story building. This will house the $12b 2.2GW system with a storage capacity of 350,000MWh (159 hours at full power), which is forecasted to reach full commercial operation by December 2028.

Snowy Hydro CEO Dennis Barnes stated they are approximately 51% of the way to completing the project, but there is still a lot to de-risk going forward.

The tunnel boring machine Florence, which got stuck in September 2022 due to unexpected soft ground, was stuck only 140 metres into its 16-kilometre journey. Florence has begun to move again in December 2023, but moving at a rate of 6 metres per day. In order to stay on target, Florence will need to pick up the pace to 12 to 15 metres a day.

According to Barnes, Snowy is considering a fourth boring machine to ensure the project will keep on the revised target, with the decision being made in the following months.

Projects such as Snowy 2.0 providing long-term storage are crucial for the energy transition in the NEM, being able to provide firming capacity during solar and wind droughts, which will inevitably occur. This will allow for the retirement of coal units, as well as allow for a total of 6.6GW of new renewables into the system.

Even with the need for such projects, the project has faced backlash due to the cost blowing out considerably higher than initial estimates, particularly when the additional $8.5 billion of connecting transmission to the north and south is included.

Despite the range of challenges faced by Snowy 2.0, including budget blowouts, difficulties with the tunnel boring machine, and delays, the project is showing progress and plays a key role in achieving Australia’s renewable energy targets.

 

Callide Legal Action and Regulatory Challenges

Safety worker in hard hat pointing at electrical transmission towers under a colorful sunset sky, highlighting energy infrastructure.

Callide is facing increased scrutiny as the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) is taking legal proceedings against Callide Power Trading due to an explosion at Callide C. In May 2021, an explosion at Callide C4 led to the tripping of multiple generators and high-voltage lines in Queensland, leaving nearly half a million homes to lose power.

The AER alleges that Callide Power Trading broke the National Electricity Rules (NER) by not adhering to its own performance standards for Callide C4. According to the allegations, the C4 unit lacked a protection system in place or having sufficient energy supply to suddenly disconnect the unit when the explosion occurred.

Justin Oliver, an AER board member stated that “Failure to comply with these standards can risk power system security, see consumers disconnected from power supply and cause wholesale energy prices to increase during and beyond these events”.

Callide C3 is expected to fully return on March 31st, with C4 following on July 31st. These are revised dates following various delays affecting both units.

In a separate incident, the Federal Court ordered IG Power, who owns 50% of Callide to appoint special administrators with powers to complete a new investigator into the incidents at the power station.

There is currently no date set for the AER’s matter to be heard at Federal Court.

This highlights the immense pressure on the energy industry and regulation to suppress spot prices in the NEM. This pressure has come in various forms including market directions, price caps on underlying fuel sources such as coal and gas, and retailer reliability obligation (RRO) being enacted in SA this summer.

This pressure has been evident in the spot price, as the spot price over the summer has been very soft, particularly in South Australia and Victoria, with prices being far below forecasted and previously traded levels.

This has caused issues for generators leading Engie to announce the early closure of two units in SA, removing 138MW of capacity from July 1, brought forward from an initial closure scheduled for 2028. This is due to financial reasons as losses have been mounting at the plants, unable to make a profit in the spot market.

There is currently a T-3 forecasted in South Australia from December 2025 to February 2026. Following the recent RRO witnessed over the summer in South Australia where spot prices have been low, volatility has been minimal, and there have been few system security issues in the state. Will we see any revisions or changes to RRO in the future?

Potential for Below Baseline REGOs

Two silhouetted figures stand on a platform at sea, observing a vast offshore wind farm against a dramatic sunset sky.

LGCs are now in an interesting position. With the REGO scheme all but fully legislated to start in 2025, there may be opportunity to meet voluntary requirements from this secondary market before it becomes the likely primary market at the end of 2030 until 2050.

The REGO scheme looks likely to exist in parallel to the LGC scheme until the expiry of the RET, with generators able to decide which products they would like to produce in any given period.

However, the REGO scheme will open previously un-tapped generation, such as below baseline generation, generation from outside of the Australian economic waters area and exported generation i.e. Sun Cable, which the LGC cannot. Further (although unlikely before 2030), STCs can be pooled to create 1 MWh, i.e. 1 REGO certificate at the point the 1MWh limit is reached.

This market is currently untapped, but with a REGO holding the same credentials as an LGC, the voluntary surrender optionality (RET Liability must still be met with LGCs until 2030) can be achieved through the REGO scheme.

With voluntary surrenders increasing, the CER estimated in 2022 a total of 7.4million LGCs were surrendered voluntarily. This increased the demand for LGCs by 1.6million in comparison to 2021 and created a demand 23% above the legislated requirements for LGCs (33m).

Prior to a REGO scheme, the increasing demand for these LGCs has come from growing corporate targets either directly into the LGC market or through its secondary market, such as GreenPower schemes.

Without increasing the availability of alternative generation sources, this growth could lead to a tightening of the supply-demand balance of the LGC and an increase in price. As such the introduction of a REGO from 2025 could be the pressure release valve the industry requires.

The growing non-RET requirements are significant, and therefore, the introduction of secondary sources of power through the REGO scheme is the only way the market will be able to meet the increasing demand.

The ACCC investigation into Momentum in 2016, where Momentum was handed a $54,000 fine for falsely advertising their green credentials, as they are backed by Hydro Tas whose generation was below baseline, has brought to the fore the requirement for accreditation of these below baseline assets (outside of the i-REC scheme).

Below baseline is renewable generation assets created before 1997 – mainly hydro assets. The baseline is set on production between 1994 – 1996, and therefore, generators coming on from 1997 have a baseline of zero and can produce LGCs, unlike those online prior to 1997. Indications are these facilities generate 12-13TWh of electricity each, that is, 12-13 million REGOs, which could come into the Australian voluntary market (pre-2030 RET end). However, the below baseline generation is eligible for an i-REC certification and many assets pursued this option prior to the REGO /GO scheme announcements. As such, this 12-13 million may be as low as 2 million in the initial years, given existing PPAs and voluntary i-REC surrender deals in place.

It is worth noting, if Hydro Tas had created the REGO and these were surrendered against the Momentum portfolio, the renewable claim would have been upheld, and the REGO would have never hit the market. This example shows that even if produced, companies may utilise the additional certification without giving others the opportunity to trade them in the open market.

A concern does sit around the inclusion of small-scale renewable REGOs, although unlikely to be in large quantities prior to 2030, the concern holds that the measurement of the “hour” the REGO is produced, when the cumulative units have reached 1MWh of generation, is currently untested and there are a significantly larger number of these units than there are utility scale solar. The cost and oversight required could add cost to the certificate, which we currently have no view of as to the uptake or requirements.

AEMO’s Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan

Electricity substation at sunrise, representing the transition in Australia's National Electricity Market as per AEMO's 2024 ISP.

AEMO recently released its Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP), which serves as a roadmap for the energy transition in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over the next 20-plus years in line with government policies aimed at achieving net zero by the year 2050.

The plan outlines a cost-effective strategy for essential energy infrastructure to meet consumer needs, ensure reliability and affordability, and achieve net zero. AEMO highlights the urgency for action as the NEM shifts from coal-fired generation dependency. With the closure of coal-fired power stations, the draft proposes using renewable energy supported by storage and gas as the most economical solution for Australia’s energy transition.

The policy set by the Federal Government aims for a 43% reduction in emissions compared to 2005 levels by the year 2030. Additionally, the policy targets 82% of electricity supplied in the NEM to come from renewable sources.

Previous ISPs established ambitious trajectories for investment, and it is imperative that projects are now executed according to the plans. AEMO’s most probable future scenario predicts about 90% of NEM’s coal fleet will retire before 2025, and the entire fleet will retire before 2040.

The energy transition is already well underway, with coal retiring faster than initially announced. The ISP continues to stress the need for urgent investments in generation, firming, and transmission to maintain a secure, reliable, and affordable electricity supply. The retirement of coal-fired generators necessitates a transition to low-cost renewable energy, supported by firming technologies like storage and gas-powered generation.

AEMO has stated that the NEM must almost triple its capacity to supply energy by 2050 to replace retiring coal capacity and meet increasing electricity demand. Every government within the NEM is actively endorsing the transition. The Federal Government has broadened the Capacity Investment Scheme, while various states have their initiatives supporting the transition to net zero.

The 2024 ISP outlined three future scenarios for 2050, which included Step Change, Progressive Change, and Green Energy Exports. All these scenarios involve the retirement of coal, aligning with government net-zero commitments. AEMO has assigned likelihoods of 43% for Step Change, 42% for Progressive Change, and 15% for Green Energy Exports.

Under AEMO’s optimal development path (ODP) for the Step Change scenario, there is a call for investment that would triple grid-scale variable renewable energy by 2030 and increase it sevenfold by 2050. The plan emphasises grid-scale generation within Renewable Energy Zones, quadrupling firming capacity, supporting a four-fold increase in rooftop solar capacity, and leveraging system security services to ensure reliability.

In terms of transmission, nearly 10,000 km of transmission is needed by 2050 for the Step Change and Progressive Change scenarios, with over twice that to support the Green Energy Exports scenario. The annualised capital cost for all infrastructure in the ODP until 2050 is $121 billion, with transmission projects constituting 13.5% of the annualised cost.

The NEM faces several risks in transitioning from coal to renewable energy. Key challenges that AEMO has identified include uncertainty in infrastructure investment, early coal retirements, markets and power system operations that are not yet ready for 100% renewables. Additionally, consumer energy resources are not adequately integrated into grid operations, the social license for the energy transition is not being earned, and critical energy assets and skilled workforces are not being secured.

In summary, AEMO’s Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan charts a crucial path for Australia’s energy transition, aligning with net-zero goals. With an urgent focus on retiring coal-fired stations, the plan advocates a swift move to renewables backed by storage and gas solutions. The plan also outlines the significant challenges faced by the industry that are required to be overcome in order to reach net zero by 2050 while ensuring a reliable and affordable energy supply.

Threats to Gas Supply Deal

Aerial view of an LNG tanker docked at a coastal industrial facility with distinctive spherical storage tanks and infrastructure for natural gas.

Chris Bowen, the Energy and Climate Change minister, announced a plan to address looming supply issues for east coast homes and businesses by securing commitment from two big gas exporters (APLNG and Senex) to divert 300 petajoules of gas into the east coast domestic market by 2023. This amount is equivalent to about half of the annual East Coast domestic market demand or two years’ worth of industrial usage.

However, this new deal is already under threat from the Greens, who plan to challenge the government’s industry code of conduct in parliament. Should the coalition support the Greens’ motion, the deal could fall through, increasing the risk of gas supply shortages in the future.

The deal gives exemptions to APLNG and Senex from the $12/GJ price cap under the code of conduct. Chris Bowen stated that “This supply is critical for households, industry and gas power generation as the Bass Strait fields deplete”.

The gas price cap was introduced by the government last year, which triggered a freeze in new supply investments. After negotiations, the government revised the code of conduct, allowing exemptions for gas developers who committed to selling into the domestic market. Bowen has criticised the Greens for potentially disrupting the deal, highlighting the critical role gas will play in the energy transition and for grid reliability.

In related news, Australia’s annual climate change statement projects emissions to be 42% below 2005 levels by 2030, slightly below Labor’s election commitment of 43%.

Additionally, Chris Bowen has declined to specify the potential financial impact on taxpayers from the newly expanded Capacity Investment Scheme. The scheme involves the Australian government underwriting 32GW of new power generation through two auctions per year.

While industry experts anticipate this could cost billions annually, Bowen stated, “It is quite standard budget treatment to say we will not indicate our pricing expectations as we’re about to enter an auction”. He assured that the government’s strategy aims to maximise taxpayer benefits and maintain competitive bidding.

The scheme does not intend to “subsidising negative pricing”. Instead, it requires project proponents to state their minimum required profit and a maximum price point for sharing profits with the government. The government will retain control over bid acceptance and the total amount of gigawatts allocated.

AEMO’s Summer Readiness Briefing

Close-up of a document with the term 'El Niño' highlighted in pink.

On Monday the 13th, AEMO held their annual Summer Readiness briefing. The purpose of this report is to highlight risks and address how they will be combatted in the upcoming summer. The report highlights the well-known risks of El Niño, such as extreme peak demand due to heat (potential for POE10), and the potential for reduced wind generation. In addition to the following covered within the briefing:

  • Weather & Climate outlook
  • Electricity & Gas System Readiness
  • Network Readiness
  • Victorian Bushfire Readiness

The briefing also noted that scheduled generation availability is up across all states compared to last summer, it also points out the risk that several generators are on longer-term outages in the November–December period. Specifically, in coal generation, the following outages were highlighted:

  • QLD: Callide B1/B2, C3/C4, Gladstone 1/2, and Tarong 4
  • NSW: Bayswater 1, Eraring 2
  • VIC: Loy Yang A2, Newport, Yallourn 2

The report highlighted the effects of the positive El Niño, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which would amplify the effects of the El Niño. The El Niño is currently expected to persist into Autumn with the positive IOD forecasted to last into at least early summer.

Additionally, there is also a number of planned high-impact network outages scheduled for the summer. However, AEMO highlights that these outages are only allowed to proceed if they do not pose any system security issues.

TransGrid presented a Bushfire Risk Management Plan which outlined the proactively management and mitigation of our exposure to bushfires. This includes risk of bushfires affecting transmission lines. Proactive management and mitigation involved vegetation management and identifying any high priority defects prior to the start of the season. Ultimately, TransGrid’s assessment indicated strong organisational preparedness for the 2023/24 bushfire season.

The report also notes needed increases in Reliability Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) participants, specifically to the reliability gap outlined in the latest ESOO (118MW and 120MW in SA and Vic respectively).

AER’s State of the Energy Market in 2023

The AER released their annual ‘State of the Energy Market’ report last Thursday for 2023 for Australia’s electricity and gas markets. This included some relatively good news as the energy system in 2023 has “experienced fewer shocks and better outcomes than in 2022”. The 2023 wholesale electricity market prices have declined from the record prices in 2022, largely due to the government interventions in the coal and gas markets. Despite the decline, prices remain high by historical standards.

A media release by the AER accompanying the report stated, “Increases in wholesale energy prices were evident in retail prices, with estimated electricity bills rising between 9% and 20% in all NEM jurisdictions in 2022-23, impacting households already experiencing broader cost-of-living pressures. “

The report highlighted the pressures for investment in renewables to permit the retirement of coal generation. The report also commented on Liddell’s retirement in April 2023 going smoothly due to the new renewable generation and recent favourable market conditions.

The transition to new energy infrastructure faces several challenges:

  • The vast scale and required coordination of investments.
  • Rising costs in the infrastructure sector.
  • The need for community engagement in infrastructure planning and development.

The report highlighted the government involvement and support in investments including joint initiatives between Australia Government and state and territory governments.

The dynamic between electricity and gas markets is increasingly interconnected. As regions shift from gas demand to electricity demand (like replacing gas heating with electric air conditioning), it’s anticipated that pressure on gas markets will decrease, while electricity demand will surge. Factors like electric vehicle adoption will further influence electricity demand and the necessity for new infrastructure.

Furthermore, planning will now also factor in emissions reduction to serve the long-term interests of energy consumers, integrating it with other goals such as price, reliability, and supply security.

An interesting comment was made in the report executive summary highlighting concerns in the industry surrounding issues of competition in the market and market power outlined below.

“Our concerns are around the reduced liquidity of exchange-traded hedging products, the declining number of clearing service providers for electricity derivatives, and the levels of concentration of ownership of flexible generation capacity, particularly in NSW and Victoria. The AER’s anticipated new powers in relation to contract market monitoring will allow us to better monitor participant behaviour and gain sharper insights on issues of competition and market power.”

Strikes at Chevron LNG Plants

Last-minute talks broke down at Chevron’s LNG projects, and Unions have initiated three weeks of strike actions, causing the European gas price to surge. Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG plants contribute approximately 7% of global LNG supplies and 47% of Western Australia’s domestic gas. The strikes are planned to average 10 hours a day until Thursday, at which point the strikes will escalate to two full weeks of 24-hour strikes.

The Dutch TTF gas futures (European benchmark gas prices) jumped 8.2% in the first 15 minutes of market opening; a direct result of the strikes. However, the impact of the strikes in the short term is softened because storage levels across Europe are reportedly at record levels for this time of year. Sources from the Union said there were five days of mediation prior to Friday morning without reaching an agreement. The Union indicated Chevron apparently had demanded “special concessions” in bargaining – “a demand which we have put through the shredding machine”.

An energy analyst indicated that the initial action is of a lower level, causing costs and inefficiencies but not significantly impacting production. However, there would be a major impact should the strike escalate on Thursday.

A spokesman for Chevron said, “Throughout the process to date, we’ve made generous, good faith offers and concessions in an effort to finalise enterprise agreements.” “Unfortunately, following numerous meetings and conciliation sessions with the Fair Work Commission, no agreement has been reached as the unions are asking for terms significantly above the market.” The spokesman also stated that Chevron remains committed to attaining an agreement which will achieve a market-competitive outcome in the interests of both Chevron and its employees.

Edge believes the impact of the strikes won’t significantly affect the Australian gas and electricity market as full-scale shutdowns of the Chevron Wheatstone and Gorgon plants are unlikely. This is because it could trigger a domestic energy crisis in WA, prompting government intervention to end the strikes.

Electricity Grid Faces Challenges Amid El Niño’s Return, Warns AEMO

Australia’s electricity grid is bracing for potential disruptions this summer, particularly in Victoria and South Australia. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has expressed concerns about the imminent El Niño, which is anticipated to bring about a season of extreme heat and wind-less days.

This latest warning from AEMO (2023 ESOO) presents a very concerning picture. The slow pace of transitioning from old coal plants to cleaner energy sources, coupled with potential coal and gas shortages, has heightened the risk of blackouts. AEMO’s annual 10-year outlook emphasizes the urgency of investments. With nearly two-thirds of Australia’s coal power fleet expected to shut down by 2033, the need for swift action to ensure uninterrupted power supply is paramount.

The challenges of transitioning to a greener economy are becoming more evident. The scenario in NSW, following the proposed 2025 closure of the massive Eraring coal generator, is particularly urgent. AEMO strongly recommends postponing such retirements to avoid blackouts. Contrasting their optimistic report from February, the upcoming summer may see Victoria and South Australia facing with power shortages. These shortages can be attributed to a mix of factors, including periods of low wind, recurring generator breakdowns, and the gas plant shutdown.

The latest AEMO report indicates that roughly 3.4GW of new generation and storage capacity is projected by this summer. Furthermore, initiatives like Snowy 2.0 in NSW and the Borumba pumped hydro project in Queensland are aimed to bolster capacity by 2032-33. However, there are concerns as projects like Snowy 2.0 confront delays and rising costs.

With the re-emergence of the El Niño pattern, the electricity grid is anticipated to be under significant stress, especially following three comparatively milder summers due to La Niña. The growing popularity of electric vehicles and electric heating, notably in states like Victoria, will add to the strain on the grid.

Sarah McNamara, the CEO of the Australian Energy Council, perceives this both as a challenge and an opportunity. She is optimistic that the market can overcome these obstacles with the appropriate price signals to stimulate investment.

In conclusion, while the journey to a low-emission economy might be lined with challenges, with the right strategies and investment, Australia can ensure a reliable and sustainable power supply for its citizens.