NSW Budget 2026 Signals Acceleration in Energy Transition

Major investment in renewable zones, transmission infrastructure, and household electrification signals a rapidly evolving energy market.

The New South Wales Government’s 2026 Budget, released on 23 June 2026, reinforces a strong and coordinated push toward a cleaner, more decentralised energy system. With significant funding directed toward Renewable Energy Zones (REZs), transmission infrastructure, and household electrification, the budget highlights a dual-track strategy shaping the future of the state’s energy market.

 

Major Investment in Renewable Energy Zones

REZs remain central to NSW’s energy transition strategy, with the Government continuing to support their delivery and expansion. These zones are expected to unlock approximately $77 billion in private investment, positioning them as a cornerstone of future renewable generation capacity.

Key projects such as the Central-West Orana REZ, New England REZ, and Hunter Transmission Project are progressing, reinforcing NSW’s commitment to developing large-scale renewable infrastructure.

 

Transmission Infrastructure a Key Priority

A critical focus in this year’s budget is ensuring that new generation can be effectively delivered to market. The Government has allocated $2.5 billion over four years to the Transmission Acceleration Facility, designed to fund early-stage development costs, including community engagement and workforce mobilisation.

Importantly, the facility operates as a recycling fund, with costs recovered from private transmission operators over time, allowing funding to be reinvested in future projects. Repayments are expected to continue through to 2040.

In addition, $224.8 million has been committed to the South West Renewable Energy Zone, supporting the delivery of up to 2.5 gigawatts of network transfer capacity.

 

Strong Focus on Household Energy Upgrades

Alongside large-scale infrastructure, the budget places considerable emphasis on reducing energy costs and emissions at the household level.

A $557.1 million package has been introduced to support energy upgrades, including:

  • Rooftop solar systems
  • Battery storage
  • Insulation and draught-proofing
  • Reverse-cycle air conditioning
  • Electrical and switchboard upgrades

The program includes:

  • $480 million in interest-free loans, up to $15,000 per household (repayable over 10 years)
  • $77.1 million in direct discounts
  • Eligibility for households with combined incomes up to $210,000

Additional initiatives, such as appliance upgrade programs, further aim to improve household energy efficiency and reduce long-term costs.

 

Growth in Distributed Energy and Storage

The budget also builds on the growing role of distributed energy resources. Incentives include:

  • Approximately 30% reduction in upfront costs for small-scale battery systems through the Cheaper Home Batteries program (administered by the Australian Government)
  • Virtual Power Plant (VPP) incentives, offering households average savings of up to $500

These measures are designed to encourage households to play a more active role in the energy system, contributing to grid stability while reducing reliance on traditional generation.

 

A More Complex Energy Landscape

From Edge2020’s perspective, the 2026 NSW Budget confirms a clear trajectory:

  • Increased renewable penetration
  • Expanded transmission capacity
  • Greater participation from end users

While these developments create opportunities, they also introduce greater complexity in pricing, contract structures, and risk management.

As the energy market evolves, businesses and asset owners will need to adopt more strategic approaches to energy procurement and management to navigate increasing volatility and maximise value.


If you’re assessing how these changes may impact your organisation, our team at Edge2020 would love to share insights and help identify commercial and sustainability opportunities in the year ahead.

Queensland to continue large investments in energy in new budget

The Queensland 2026-27 budget was released today with the following key new investments in energy:

Locking-in lower power prices for Ergon customers as part of the Energy Roadmap Price Drop, saving families around 7% and businesses 8% by passing on the full power price reduction.

Delivering the Fuel Security Plan by fast-tracking the Taroom Trough Development Plan, accelerating the development of production in the Taroom Trough, optimising production in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin, and investing in new refining capability on Queensland soil with $19 million over two years.

Boosting Queensland’s onshore fuel storage capacity by unlocking land near ports and fast-tracking new investment, including unlocking up to $100 million investment by BP in additional fuel storage.

Continuing the rollout of the $5.2 billion Energy Roadmap in 2026-27. Key investments include:

  • $2.096 billion to maintain and extend the electricity network including $420 million to progress CopperString (with construction to commence on the Eastern Link in 2028 and commercial operations in 2032 (subject to approvals)) and $501.1 million to progress Powerlink’s Gladstone Project.
  • The Electricity Maintenance Guarantee will support a further $523.5 million of investment into existing state-owned generation assets. Over the next five years, the Electricity Maintenance Guarantee is underpinning a $1.8 billion investment in Queensland’s state-owned generation assets.
  • Queensland Hydro will invest $324.3 million to continue early works and progress the Borumba Pumped Hydro Energy Storage as part of a joint energy and water security project, subject to ongoing assessment through the Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC) Review.
  • The $200 million North West Energy Fund is backing new energy projects in and around Mount Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek and Richmond.

Further details can be found in Budget Paper 3 – Capital Statement. Interested in learning more about these new announcements? Please get in touch with our energy experts at Edge2020.

Will geopolitics derail electricity price falls?

Aerial view of an LNG tanker docked at a coastal industrial facility with distinctive spherical storage tanks and infrastructure for natural gas.

Overview

On 19 March 2026, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released its Draft Default Market Offer (DMO) determination for the 2026–27 regulatory year. The Draft DMO proposes electricity price reductions across all DMO regions (NSW, Southeast QLD, SA). The DMO establishes a regulated price cap for standing offer electricity plans and serves as a benchmark reference price for market offers. It is designed to provide a safety net for households and small business customers who do not actively switch electricity retailers.

Under the Draft determination, residential customers are forecast to experience annual price reductions of between 1.3% and 10.1%, while small business customers could see larger reductions ranging from 7.6% to 21.2%, depending on region and distribution network. These reductions are primarily driven by lower wholesale electricity costs (WEC).

Wholesale Electricity Costs and DMO Methodology

Wholesale electricity costs are a key component of the DMO and are calculated using a complex methodology. In simplified terms, the WEC reflects a volume-weighted average of ASX Energy contract prices. As WEC typically represents approximately 30–40% of the final DMO, changes in forward contract prices can materially influence regulated electricity prices.

Lessons from the 2022 DMO Volatility

Historical experience demonstrates the sensitivity of the DMO to rapid changes in energy contract prices. In 2022, a sharp increase in futures contract prices—approximately 100% between the Draft DMO release in February and the Final DMO determination in May—was largely triggered by the war in Ukraine. This resulted in a significant uplift in WEC, with increases of ~25% in QLD and NSW, and ~5% in SA.

The table below illustrates the extent of these changes in 2022 for flat-rate tariffs across key distribution networks:

Distribution Network Draft WEC ($/MWh) Final WEC ($/MWh) Change
Ausgrid 97.94 122.23 25%
Endeavour 98.94 124.25 26%
Essential 91.53 115.97 27%
Energex 92.47 110.53 20%
SAPN 128.26 134.53 5%

 

Current Market Conditions and the Iran Conflict

Baseload quarterly contracts for FY27 remained broadly stable throughout most of 2025 and declined steadily between November 2025 and February 2026. However, following the US–Iran conflict on 28 February 2026, contract prices across these three states have increased by ~10–20%.

This development raises the question of whether current geopolitical tensions could result in a similar divergence between the Draft and Final DMO outcomes as observed in 2022.

Expected Impact on the Final 2026–27 DMO

Analysis conducted by Edge2020, drawing on historical Draft versus Final DMO outcomes and movements in contract prices, suggests that if forward prices for FY27 remain at current levels, the impact on the Final DMO is likely to be minimal.

In a more extreme scenario—where contract prices rise rapidly over the next two months in a manner comparable to 2022—the WEC component could increase by up to 7%. However, such an outcome is considered highly unlikely due to stronger coal fleet availability, softer fuel prices, and increased renewable generation and storage capacity in the market. Even in this scenario, the overall impact on final DMO prices would be moderated, given the partial contribution of WEC to total DMO costs.

Longer-Term Implications

While the immediate impact on the 2026–27 Final DMO is expected to be limited, sustained higher forward contract prices would eventually feed into future DMO determinations. As a result, prolonged geopolitical instability and persistently elevated energy prices could place upward pressure on regulated electricity prices in subsequent years.

 

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global LNG Shockwaves

Escalating Middle East conflict halts Qatari LNG exports, tightening global gas markets and driving renewed volatility in Australian electricity futures.

The escalating war in the Middle East has forced the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, Qatar, to halt operations. At the centre of this disruption is the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes for oil and LNG.

Iran has reportedly warned shipping not to traverse the Strait, and tanker traffic through the waterway has effectively ceased for the time being. This closure presents a significant risk of disruption to global oil and LNG markets, at a time when supply balances remain sensitive.

A Major Shock to Global LNG Supply

According to Wood Mackenzie, nearly 20% of global LNG transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. A halt in flows through this corridor would dramatically tighten global LNG markets and place immediate upward pressure on prices.

In addition, Woodmac has warned that the scale of disruption could be “comparable in scale to the curtailment of Russian gas supplies to Europe four years ago” — an event that triggered extreme volatility and sustained price increases across global energy markets.

With Qatar halting operations and vessel traffic paused, the market is now pricing in the risk of extended supply disruption.

Flow-On Impacts for Australia

Australia is not insulated from these global dynamics. Domestic gas and electricity prices are strongly correlated with international LNG markets, meaning sustained disruption is likely to influence local pricing.

This week, electricity futures have already begun responding:

  • NSW Q2 2026 futures rose 6.58% week-on-week

  • VIC Q2 2026 futures rose 6.57% week-on-week

 

An extended conflict or prolonged supply interruption could reverse the downward trend seen in electricity futures over recent months, increasing cost pressure for energy users.

A Rapidly Evolving Situation

This is a fast-moving geopolitical and energy market event. The duration of the disruption — and whether LNG flows resume in the near term — will be critical in determining the magnitude and persistence of price impacts.

We are closely monitoring developments across global LNG markets and Australian electricity futures.

If you’re interested in how this escalating situation might impact your electricity cost, please contact us.

The Woe of Callide

The woes at Callide Power Station continue to deepen and have claimed yet another casualty.

Sources indicate that on 4 April, a significant clinker (a mass of hardened ash) detached from the boiler wall in the C3 unit. While clinker formation is not unusual in coal fired power stations, routine maintenance typically addresses such issues during outages. It appears that this clinker broke away during the unit’s operation, causing the ash conveyor water system to release high pressure steam into the boiler.

It has also been reported that the steam from the ash conveyor water system subsequently extinguished the fires in all four mills, which process coal into pulverised fuel (PF) to fire the boilers. As a result, the boiler flames in the four mills were snuffed out, and the unit experienced a pressure fluctuation as it drew in unburned fuel and air. This fluctuation allegedly led to an explosion that caused extensive damage to the unit and its boiler.

Fortunately, no workers were in the vicinity at the time. However, significant repair work is now required, including in the hard-to-reach upper sections of the boiler, where extensive cladding and lagging repairs must be undertaken.

The political fallout continues to swirl. CS Energy CEO Darren Busine has already tendered his resignation, which has now been made immediate. There is also speculation that the General Manager of Callide Power Station has offered their immediate resignation.

Concerns have arisen around the LNP Queensland Government, specifically regarding what David Janetzki knew and when he knew it, particularly given his 8 April address to the Queensland Energy Club. In that speech, he announced coal and Callide would continue to play an ongoing role in Queensland’s energy mix beyond Callide B’s expected 2028 closure (at least another three years) with no mention of the recent explosion or the seriousness of the incident.

This event evokes memories of the Callide C4 explosion in May 2021, whose outcomes were finalised in February 2025 when the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) imposed a $9 million fine plus court costs on the joint venture for the Callide C4 unit. The fine, just shy of the maximum $10 million possible, was the highest ever imposed for failure to comply with performance standards under the National Electricity Rules (NER). The retailer was found to have breached the NER by failing to meet its own performance standards, and investigations revealed that there was insufficient energy supply to safely disconnect the generating unit when the explosion occurred. Furthermore, the protection systems intended to override the connections were found to be inadequate.

The incident report also noted that, two minutes after staff evacuated due to a fire, a two-tonne rotor shaft piece was thrown five metres across the turbine hall floor, while a 300kg piece of equipment was hurled 20 metres into the air, breaking through the hall’s roof.

NEM Reform Consultation

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCCEEW) is supporting the independent expert panel headed by Prof. Tim Nelson. The panel is preparing a roadmap and making actionable recommendations to support reforms to the NEM Wholesale Market.

The first consultation with stakeholders closed on February 14, 2025. This will be followed by a draft report in Q325, with the final report to be submitted to the Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council in December 2025.

Investment incentives will likely focus on the several areas being looked to for comment.

The first being, can government certificated schemes promote investment in firmed, renewable generation and storage? This will favour those sites that can, via a combination of assets, likely solar, wind and battery, benefit from providing a firm, flat shape to the grid in addition to those currently in place via the CIS and LGC schemes. This will likely be welcomed by renewable developers and those retailers who have the ability to firm renewables around their existing large-scale assets. However, it will not be favoured by smaller single-site developers who will argue it will not allow competition but favour the larger participants of such a scheme. However, this could gain traction similarly to how the LGC scheme facilitated the development of 33,000,000 MWh of new renewable generation by guaranteeing a minimum certificate requirement for off-takers. Such a mechanism could potentially replace the LGC scheme post-2030, allowing for continued renewable development without requiring direct government support through programs like CIS.

The second area of focus will be the previously mentioned ESB Post-25 Capacity Mechanism scheme. Although not explicitly mentioned, it is the inference from the document’s questions. This was a controversial proposal by the ESB, as it would benefit only existing large-scale non-renewable generators at its core and could slow renewable investments. Although under a different guise, this has already occurred through the payments Origin will receive for the Eraring extension. This approach will likely continue throughout the 2020s and into the 2030s until sufficient storage and transmission infrastructure are in place to enable renewables to effectively meet the power demands of the NEM.

The wholesale market and consumer interaction will focus largely on the availability of Demand-Side Response (DSR). It may be preferable if these services can be included within the wholesale market. However, in reality, the NEM_DE (AEMO’s dispatch engine) cannot facilitate this. As such, the reforms may suggest these changes, but the likelihood of them being implemented is low.

The paper will likely result in more progressive tariffs and contracting, time-of-use reforms, and the ability to interact as an aggregated load (likely batteries) or feed-in tariffs at a time-of-use scale for consumers.

At the extreme, a full market overhaul should be proposed and will likely be presented by proponents. It is well-known that Australia operates under a pool mechanism, following previous pool models that have experienced soaring wholesale electricity prices and allowed participants to manipulate bid stacks. The likely replacement would be to move to a self-dispatch energy-only market, which would remove the requirements for capacity payments and a central dispatch model whilst encouraging competition. A reformed approach would have an underlying principle of bilateral trading where all output from generators must be contracted, removing the incentive to manipulate the prices in the pool spot market. This would bring the futures “Swap” market into a physical market, or a Futures market, which could run in parallel, as well as a “spot market”, which would run from the day ahead until just before delivery. Any imbalances not traded in these markets would be subject to imbalanced settlement pricing which could be significantly higher due to the calculations which underpin the cost of the balancing. All market participants would likely welcome this, bar those who are currently able to benefit from aggressive bidding behaviour and create a real time operating system.

This would significantly reduce AEMO’s role in the market and open up the ability for smaller generators, large off-takers and Distributed Network Operators to have access to the market and control the pricing and balance their assets in a much more controlled manner. It is likely any reforms suggesting this would receive significant lobbying and pushback within the government. PPAs and CFDs can still function within this market; however, they would be settled externally as financial products. The market, in turn, would provide better investment signals for operators and developers.

AEMC Reliability Panel Stakeholder Input

On December 12th, the AEMC released a request for stakeholder input as it commenced its System Restart panel review.

The panel are looking to review the challenges, especially around:

  • The increasing reliance on the lowered availability of System Restart Ancillary Services (SRAS) and scarcity of that capability from new transmission-connected generators.
  • The rising system restoration risks are coming about within areas of large penetration of distribution-connected PV generation.

The framework is being assessed in two stages: the first comprises a review to assess whether the current regulatory framework suits the evolving nature of the grid under the AEMO ISP, and the second revises the requirements around system restarts based on the first stage findings, considering the risks associated with major supply disruption risks and SRAR availability and costs.

In the event of a significant loss of generation and supply to consumer load, the current arrangements allow for invoking the SRAS procedures known as black start capability. This capability is usually made up of smaller, quick-to-start, smaller-generation units that can assist historically large baseload units in coming online.

Overall, the absence of this generation would primarily become problematic during a large-scale system failure, similar to the issues experienced with Callide. However, as we transition to a grid with more variable generation and fewer synchronous units, such disturbances could become more frequent. This trend may persist until sufficient storage capacity is available to stabilise the system.

Submissions close on 30/01/25, and it is likely that a significant number of differing opinions will emerge as businesses advocate for ensuring payments are available for these events. This could also strengthen the arguments being presented, following the ESB Post 25 assessment, for the introduction of a capacity mechanism for generators on the NEM.

Record demand recorded in Queensland

Queensland set a new record for operational demand on January 22, 2025, exactly one year after the previous record on January 22, 2024. The demand reached 11,144 MW, surpassing last year’s record of 11,005 MW.

This high demand was driven by extreme heat and associated cooling loads, significantly exceeding forecasts. Evening demand surpassed the 10% Probability of Exceedance (POE10) forecast of approximately 10.7 GW by about 0.5 GW. Similar to last year, the POE10 forecast underestimated demand, then by about 0.3–0.4 GW.

The unexpectedly high demand strained the Queensland grid, causing significant market volatility. The daily average electricity price spiked to $1,133/MWh, increasing the Q1 2025 quarterly average by approximately $45/MWh.

The situation was exacerbated by the Gladstone 2 unit tripping just before 7 PM, although it returned to service around 1 AM the next morning. Limited interconnector flows from New South Wales into Queensland, caused by constraints and ongoing issues at Bayswater 2, further compounded the problem.

Queensland is expected to see softer electricity demand in the coming week as temperatures are forecasted to decrease.

In contrast, New South Wales’ POE10 forecast is 12.8 GW tonight, driven by high temperatures across the state. While current pre-dispatch prices remain soft, such high demand means any outages or constraints could significantly impact spot prices and cause volatility.

As demand continues to rise year-on-year, concerns about supply adequacy during the energy transition are growing. Are these trends and risks adequately accounted for in future forecasts? Will supply keep pace with demand?

Looking ahead, could February 2025 bring further record-breaking demand events?

December 2024 Gas Inquiry Report Recap

The December 2024 Gas inquiry report by the ACCC was released on Friday, with its focus on the operation of the east coast gas market.

Natural gas is vital to Australia’s transition to lower emissions, supporting energy security, reliability, and affordability as renewables dominate electricity generation. It remains essential for all users including residential, commercial, and industrial users, particularly for manufacturing and chemical processes where alternatives are not viable such as electricity.

However, east coast gas supply is declining as traditional sources like the Gippsland Basin begin to deplete and new investment lags behind. In the short term, southern states are forecasted to rely upon gas transported from Queensland, facing constraints in pipeline capacity and potential dependence on imported LNG. This will increasingly tie domestic gas prices to international markets and transportation costs, driving up prices locally.

The 2022 energy crisis underscored the risks of inadequate gas supply and the market’s susceptibility to global volatility. To ensure reliability and a smooth transition to lower emissions, the east coast gas market must remain well-supplied as demand for gas is expected to remain high for at least two decades. While residential and commercial demand may decline with electrification, industrial demand will persist due to the lack of alternatives.

AEMO has forecasted that gas-powered generation will grow, requiring additional infrastructure to fill the gap created by intermittent generation from sources like solar and wind until sufficient storage is developed. The ACCC also mentioned that declining residential demand may also impact gas distribution networks, raising concerns about stranded assets and potential costs for end users.

The report highlights the critical role of natural gas in Australia’s energy transition and warns of the challenges ahead. Declining east coast supply, rising reliance on imports, and links to volatile international markets risk driving up prices. This price increase would likely flow through to energy prices, impacting the southern states in particular. With gas-powered generation needed to fill the gaps of solar and wind, action is required to secure supply and invest in new infrastructure. Will the necessary steps be taken in time?

The role of Mount Piper

At Mount Piper Power Station, a coal power station near Lithgow in NSW, operators work to minimise financial losses by reducing the units minimum operational load at which the units can stay online, as electricity prices plummet into negative territory during solar hours, driven by an influx of solar generation flooding the grid. They focus on positioning the station to capitalise on the expected price spike later in the day, as solar generation declines and supply tightens, leading to higher prices.

The plant, which has a total capacity of 1430 MW, can still operate a little over 10% capacity. While it was initially able to ramp down to only 320 MW, its minimum operating level was reduced to 150 MW in July 2023. This approach enables the unit to operate at a reduced load during the day – despite incurring losses, before ramping up production during the evening peak to offset earlier deficits and achieve profitability. “It’s a balancing act – how hard do they need us to get out of the way [of cheap renewable energy] versus how hard do they need us in the evening,” said Steve Marshall, Head of Mount Piper for EnergyAustralia.

With a capacity of 1430 MW, the power station’s two turbines supply about 10% of NSW’s maximum demand.

Mount Piper was instrumental during two significant grid events throughout 2024: the pre-summer heatwave in late November and the administered pricing event in May, where blackouts were narrowly averted. During these critical periods, the station operated at full capacity. Without Mount Piper’s contribution, load shedding in parts of NSW would likely have been inevitable.

Mount Piper has proven to be a reliable and critical unit in the state, experiencing minimal unplanned outages or trips compared to other units in the NEM.

Mount Piper Power Station has also explored ways to better manage the impact of solar carveouts, trialling a process called ‘two-shifting.’ This involves taking one steam turbine off the grid for up to 12 hours while keeping the boiler warm and ready for a quick restart. This approach has been adopted in other regions, such as the United Kingdom and United States, where plants have adapted to different daily cycles. However, operating the units in this manner is expensive, as they require upgrades and/or increased maintenance.

Several coal units across the NEM have struck agreements with the government to ensure supply capacity remains available until their planned exit from the grid.

  • Yallourn Generator (VIC): Secured by a 2021 agreement with the state government, ensuring 1480MW capacity until mid-2028.
  • Loy Yang A Generator (VIC): Similar agreement extending operation until 2035.
  • Eraring Plant (NSW): Agreement with NSW government extends operation to August 2027, adding two more years, with the option for a further two years without subsidies at this stage.

Mount Piper Power Station plans to play a “reserve” role, functioning as a firming unit that runs only when necessary to fill gaps in wind and solar generation. For several years, the station has participated in discussions with the NSW government about a potential industry-wide coal closure plan. A bill to establish a framework for the “orderly exit management” of coal power plants was passed by South Australian parliament on Wednesday, 27 November 2024, though the rules are still being finalised.

Mount Piper’s low minimum running output and two-shifting capability position the station as a valuable asset in the energy transition. However, maintaining the flexibility comes at a considerable cost. A major maintenance overhaul, scheduled to commence in April 2025, will require an investment of $160 million. During this period, Unit 1 will be offline from April 1 to May 26, and Unit 2 from April 6 to April 27, resulting in a 21-day overlap when both units will be out of service.

Edge2020 anticipates Mount Piper Power Station to play an increasingly crucial role in the transition as new clean generation and transmission projects come online. Given the station’s growing financial challenges amid negative prices, volatile market demand, and stricter environmental and regulatory requirements, this shift will require significant policy support by government.