In 2024, Queensland has experienced extreme fluctuations of operational demand, reflecting the complexities of the ongoing energy transition. From record high demand peaks in January surpassing 11GW, to unprecedented lows in August below 3GW, the Queensland grid has been stretched in both directions, highlighting the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into a grid previously dominated by fossil fuel baseload.
On 22 January, Queensland recorded an all-time maximum demand exceeding 11,000MW, smashing the previous record by approximately 800MW. This surge in demand was driven by very hot and humid weather, leading to a substantial increase in cooling loads across the state.
In stark contrast, on 18 August, Queensland registered its lowest operational demand in at least 24 years, dropping to 2,975MW. This significant dip was primarily due to the increased penetration of rooftop solar, which contributed an estimated 3.8 to 3.9GW of electricity during this period. With such a large portion of the state’s power being generated by rooftop solar, electricity prices during daylight hours plummeted.
However, this record low demand driven by solar, resulted in approximately 1.8GW of variable renewable energy (VRE), predominantly from solar, being curtailed during this period. This only left 745MW of utility scale solar feeding into the grid. This level of curtailment underscores the growing challenge of balancing the supply and demand of renewable energy, particularly as rooftop solar continues to expand while storage solutions lag behind.
The previous low demand record was set in October 2023 at just over 3GW. As we approach September and October of this year, there is anticipation that demand could drop even further as traditionally this is the lowest period for demand. However, this will depend on factors such as luminosity, rooftop PV generation, and temperature, potentially leading to reduced electricity prices and increased curtailment.
This situation also raises concerns about the oversupply of solar energy and the urgent need for further investment in grid infrastructure and storage solutions required to manage these fluctuations.
One of the most significant issues facing the broader market is the impact of rooftop solar PV, which operates outside the traditional market, causing electricity prices to crash during sunny hours. This, in turn, pushes out utility scale solar and other sources of generation, presenting a challenging issue going forward of managing different types of renewables and preventing them from significantly cutting into each other resulting in curtailment.
