On Monday the 13th, AEMO held their annual Summer Readiness briefing. The purpose of this report is to highlight risks and address how they will be combatted in the upcoming summer. The report highlights the well-known risks of El Niño, such as extreme peak demand due to heat (potential for POE10), and the potential for reduced wind generation. In addition to the following covered within the briefing:
- Weather & Climate outlook
- Electricity & Gas System Readiness
- Network Readiness
- Victorian Bushfire Readiness
The briefing also noted that scheduled generation availability is up across all states compared to last summer, it also points out the risk that several generators are on longer-term outages in the November–December period. Specifically, in coal generation, the following outages were highlighted:
- QLD: Callide B1/B2, C3/C4, Gladstone 1/2, and Tarong 4
- NSW: Bayswater 1, Eraring 2
- VIC: Loy Yang A2, Newport, Yallourn 2
The report highlighted the effects of the positive El Niño, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which would amplify the effects of the El Niño. The El Niño is currently expected to persist into Autumn with the positive IOD forecasted to last into at least early summer.
Additionally, there is also a number of planned high-impact network outages scheduled for the summer. However, AEMO highlights that these outages are only allowed to proceed if they do not pose any system security issues.
TransGrid presented a Bushfire Risk Management Plan which outlined the proactively management and mitigation of our exposure to bushfires. This includes risk of bushfires affecting transmission lines. Proactive management and mitigation involved vegetation management and identifying any high priority defects prior to the start of the season. Ultimately, TransGrid’s assessment indicated strong organisational preparedness for the 2023/24 bushfire season.
The report also notes needed increases in Reliability Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) participants, specifically to the reliability gap outlined in the latest ESOO (118MW and 120MW in SA and Vic respectively).