Clean Energy Regulator confirms 2019 RRP and STP

On 12 March 2019, the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) has confirmed the 2019 renewable power percentage (RPP) and small-scale technology percentage (STP) has been set by legislative amendment.

The 2019 RRP has been set at 18.6% and the 2019 STP has been set at 21.73%.

As explained by the CER, the RRP and STP set the annual statutory demand for large-scale generation certificates and small-scale technology certificates in the Renewable Energy Target.

If you have any questions regarding the 2019 RRP or STP or any other matter relating to energy, please contact Edge Energy Services on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

AEMO releases draft Marginal Loss Factors

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its draft marginal loss factors (MLFs) today. As generally expected, solar and wind farms that are a long distance from the regional reference point have been hurt.

The most notable example of this is the Broken Hill solar farm, which has a draft MLF for FY20 of 0.7254. This is 0.2535 below the current MLF. If the draft MLF is confirmed in the final report (due 1 April 2019), this will reduce the volume of electricity sold by the solar farm by 25%.

A number of other solar and wind farms had material reductions in MLF and are facing a challenging situation. Most notably, Silverton Wind Farm (NSW), Karadoc Solar Farm (VIC), Griffith Solar Farm (NSW) and Parkes Solar Farm (NSW).

MLFs are very difficult to estimate, which is reflected in the relatively large change we are observing year on year. Amongst many other concerns, this creates uncertainty for the investment community.

If you have any questions regarding the draft MLFs or any other matter relating to energy, please contact Edge Energy Services on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

CleanCo Moving Ahead – Part 2

With expectations that CleanCo will be trading in the NEM by mid this year, things are getting into full swing. Last week CleanCo appointed its first two key executives – Miles George and Geoff Dutaillis.

Who are these new executives?

Miles George has been appointed the Interim Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at CleanCo. His role at CleanCo is to secure cleaner, more affordable, sustainable energy and secure supply of electricity for Queensland (QLD). He was previously the CEO and Managing Director of Infigen Energy. After leaving Infigen Energy in 2016, Miles continued as a strategic adviser until December 2017. During and after his time at Infigen, Miles has been the Chairman of the Clean Energy Council, a representative on the AEMC Reliability panel, an Expert panel member for AEMO and Director of the Australian Conservation Foundation.

Geoff Dutaillis has been appointed the General Manager of Transition. Geoff was most recently the CEO (Australia) of Wind Energy Holdings, a leading renewable energy company based in Thailand. The company has interest in various Australian wind farms. Geoff has also held executive positions at Infigen Energy as Chief Operating Officer (COO) from 2009 until 2013 and Lendlease more recently as Head of Sustainability.

What is the mandate for CleanCo?

CleanCo has the mandate to increase competition in the electricity market at peak times of demand when prices are generally at their highest. CleanCo is expected to transform intermittent renewable generation into firm financial products for customers and retailers while backing QLD’s renewable energy and low emissions generators.

Which of the existing generators are to be transferred from the current government owned corporations; Stanwell and CS Energy?

Initially, CleanCo’s portfolio will include a range of existing renewable and low emission energy generation assets including:

Wivenhoe pump storage hydro plant,
Swanbank E gas-fired power station, and
Barron Gorge, Kareeya and Koombooloomba hydro power stations.

If you have any questions regarding CleanCo or any other matter relating to energy, please contact Edge Energy Services on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

Update from COAG Energy Council meeting

The COAG Energy Council met today for their 21^st meeting. On the agenda was AEMO addressing their work in preparing the grid for summer, bringing down electricity costs and ensuring long term grid reliability and security.

AEMO highlighted the priority of work being undertaken to ensure that there is enough dispatchable generation in the NEM and integration of renewable and distributed energy resources. The Ministers agreed to a work program for the ESB to develop advice on a long term, fit for purpose market framework to support reliability that could apply from the mid-2020s. There was very little detail on this framework, however Edge will look to discover more.

Reliability

Ministers agreed to the final draft bill which gives effect to the Retail Reliability Obligation. The final package of rules will be brought to Council for approval in the first half of 2019, with a target commencement date of 1 July 2019.

Transmission upgrades

Ministers agreed on an approach to deliver the Group 1 transmission network projects. Group 1 projects include:

• Increasing transfer capacity between New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria by 170-460 MW;

• Reducing congestion for existing and committed renewable energy developments in western and north-western Victoria; and

• Remedy system strength in South Australia.

In the Base plan, these initial transmission developments for Group 1 are costed at between $450 million and $650 million, and the assets will continue to benefit consumers well beyond the 20-year ISP forecast period. More cost benefit analysis work is to be conducted on Group 2 and 3 projects.

If you have any questions regarding this article or the electricity market in general, call Edge on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

A lesson from RCR Tomlinson: corporate PPA’s and the sharing of risk

RCR Tomlinson entering voluntary administration this week has been a major eye-opener in the renewable energy world. The engineering firm had shown signs of stress earlier in the year, particularly when it was forced to record a $57 million write-down on the value of it’s Daydream and Hayman solar farms in Queensland. Following this, the company successfully went to market and raised an additional $100 million in capital. Now after incurring liquidated damages as a result of running late on solar projects, directors had no choice but to put the company into administration.

In the renewable energy space, these events particularly emphasise the potential risk of entering into a PPA with a project that requires development prior to receiving any MWh. For those considering entering into a renewable PPA, it is imperative to be mindful of the gravity of the project risk taken with these developments. With increasingly stringent connection criteria being enforced by AEMO and transmission companies, corporate PPA off-takers need to consider the structuring of risk in the PPA to avoid being exposed in situations like this.

There are several ways to manage project risk through legal and commercial arrangements. Without being privy to the details of RCR Tomlinson’s contracts, it would appear that the company was wearing “connection to the grid” risk. On face value, this would have felt like a win to the off-taker. However, the off-takers are now in a position where the risk has fallen onto them due the collapse of the company. Whilst RCR Tomlinson shouldn’t have taken that risk, the PPA counterparties arguably also should not have turned a blind eye to the potential project risk.

This is an important lesson for any corporate entity looking to enter into a PPA, by understanding whether your developer and construction partners have the appropriate means to manage the risk that is placed on them. Having liquidated damages in a contract is essential. However, be mindful that at the end of the day, if a company is placed into administration and subsequently liquidated, liquidated damages are worthless.

CleanCo moving ahead

In a media statement released 30 August, the Queensland Government confirmed their intention to establish CleanCo, Queensland’s third publicly owned electricity generator. CleanCo will have a strategic portfolio of low and no emission power generations assets, and will build, own and operate new renewable generation. It is understood that CleanCo will take control of assets including Wivenhoe, Barron Gorge and Kareeya hydro power stations and the Swanbank E gas power station, courtesy of a restructure of the two current publicly-owned electricity generators – CS Energy and Stanwell Corporation. CleanCo is expected to be trading by mid-2019.

Additional Small Scale Solar Coming to Victoria

The Victorian Government has announced that it will offer half priced solar panels to 650,000 households over the next 10 years.

This scheme, known as The Solar Home scheme, is currently valued at $1.24 billion and is open to owner-occupied homes with:

A combined household income of less than $180,000 per year; and
A home value of up to $3 million.

Households who are unable to install solar panels can instead choose to get a $1,000 rebate by changing their current hot water system to a solar hot water system. The solar hot water rebate is open to up to 60,000 homes.

How will this impact the market?

2017 had the highest rate of installation of rooftop solar and 2018 is on track to break this record. The additional demand created by the Victorian scheme could increase the number of certificates, and therefore the obligation for retailers to purchase certificates. This cost is likely to be passed through to consumers. In the short term, it could put downwards pressure on the certificate prices, however any reduction will be short lived as the Clean Energy Regulator adjusts the surrender target, matching demand with supply.

If you would like to understand how this may impact your portfolio please contact Edge on (07) 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

Price of Utility Scale Solar Being Questioned

The engineering company, RCR Tomlinson, went into trading halt on July 30, 2018 and its CEO, Paul Dalgleish, has stepped down. The trading halt is due to an investigation into cost blowouts for unspecified projects, which will hurt the FY18 annual profit.

The deputy state secretary of the Queensland and NT Electrical Trades Union, Peter Ong, has stated that RCR has been undercutting other bids by as much as $30 million when bidding for utility scale solar project. Peter Ong’s major concern is the use of cheaper labour to try and make up the difference.

For the broader market, if RCR have been under-pricing the engineering cost of installing utility scale solar, there could be an increase in the expected price of new utility scale solar. Citigroup warned that the recent solar farm built for Sun Metals may have had a cost blowout by as much as $7 million.

RCR has not confirmed that it is the utility scale solar which has led to the cost increase.

If you would like to understand how this may impact your portfolio please contact Edge on (07) 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

Edge attends Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum

Edge attended the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum held at the Gold Coast on 17 and 18 May 2018.

There were a number of prominent speakers at the forum including Senator Canavan, the Commonwealth Minister for Resources and Northern Australia; Tony Wood, Energy Policy Director at the Grattan Institute as well as Ian Macfarlane from the Queensland Resources Council.

Senator Canavan highlighted the improvement in the gas prices during the first four months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. He attributed part of the 24% reduction in prices at the Wallumbilla gas hub to the conversations the Federal Government had with key gas producers last year and the potential for a domestic reserve policy being enacted. The Senator also highlighted some of the challenges in communicating the value of having gas being produced right across Australia. He noted that it costs around $2.00/GJ to transport gas from Queensland to Victoria and only between $2.50/GJ and $3.00/GJ to transport gas from Queensland to Japan. The Senator had praise for the Northern Territory Government for allowing more exploration. The is a potential for 1 billion barrels of oil to be extracted in the Northern Territory which would alleviate some of the energy security issues that Australia is facing.

The Senator also spoke about some of the issues in the electricity market. He confirmed that the current renewable energy target would be closed off to new participants starting after 1 January 2021. He described the renewable energy target as one of the worse policies ever.

Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute agreed that the cost of the renewable energy target did not justify the carbon reduction. He also reflected that energy policy would continue to be political and it was up to industry to drive it forward.

Ian Macfarlane agreed with previous speakers on the renewable energy target. He described having to implement the original scheme as a “hospital pass” handed down from previous ministers. He also went on to talk about the importance of the gas industry and how the industry needs to be better at engaging the wider population. He mentioned the importance of countering the rhetoric from activists trying to stop the industry growing particularly on social media where the gas industry historically was underperforming.

If you would like to know more about the outcomes of the forum, please contact Edge on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.

Edge presents firming options at the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum

Edge presented at the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum which was held on the Gold Coast on 17 and 18 May 2018. The presentation was aimed at showing the opportunities the changes in the current electricity market held for gas producers. As the electricity market continues to adopt more renewable energy, there is an opportunity to firm this energy by supplying power when the relevant renewable source is not operating.

With an increasing demand for firmed renewable products this is a perfect time for gas producers to consider power generation in support of the renewable industry. It is possible to partner up and deliver the types of products that consumers want, and retailers are able to pass through.

If you would like to know more please contact Edge on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.